The National Imperative to Secure Free World and Commercial Access to the Moon
A presentation at the 2025
International Space Development Conference.
The Coalition to Save Manned Space
Exploration
June 19, 2025
There’s
increasing excitement at the prospects of returning to the Moon and going to
Mars. No longer perpetually a decade away, but much sooner. Elon Musk wants to
send a fleet of Starships to Mars in November of next year, and crew at the
next window in 2029. The ‘Human Landing System’ version of Starship is being
designed to land crew on the Moon as well as massive amounts of cargo.
Immediately,
though, we need a NASA Administrator to be selected and confirmed by the
Senate, followed by rapid decision-making. The future direction of NASA is
unknown, and we’ll have to wait for answers once a nominee is announced. Acting
Administrator Janet Petro remains in charge, but in that role, she can only
preside over existing programs.
The NASA
Administrator must be prepared to bust the bureaucracy and accelerate crewed Lunar
and Martian exploration plans, and must have a deep understanding of our space
program.
The status
of proposed budget cuts, cancelled projects and science, and plans for Artemis beyond
Artemis-III remains unknown until a new administrator offers such clarity and
works with Congress to reach a defined path for the next several years.
We urge NASA
to not abandon the Moon after Artemis III, but to build a permanent NASA and
commercial presence on the Moon, along with our international partners.
Partnering
with many of our ISS partners on the Moon will accelerate the timeline and
result in greater soft power, cultural diplomacy and most immediately of concern,
help restrain China.
Starship has
many steps to being ready for both Lunar and Martian missions. These include:
· Repeated successful launches and
landings.
· Orbital flights.
· Building and testing the entire
refueling infrastructure.
· Uncrewed Lunar landings and returns.
· And when used beyond Artemis’ SLS/Orion-based
crew launches, Starship will require human-ratings for both launch and reentry.
These are
steep milestones for SpaceX, and we do not have much time to make it all work
to prevent a Chinese declaration of sovereignty.
A “Plan B” may
be necessary as well.
As an
insurance policy against delays in SLS/Orion and Starship HLS, the next
administrator could consider the use of dual Falcon and Falcon-Heavy launches
using the Blue Moon lander—similar to China’s LM-10 mission profile. Note that
the Crew Dragon heatshield is not designed for Lunar return velocities, and it
is unknown if a heatshield could be designed and tested in time. Perhaps Orion
could be launched on a Falcon Heavy or Blue Origin’s New Glenn.
As a
national priority, Artemis must be accelerated. At least ready Artemis-II for launch
late this year. And Artemis-III’s SLS and Orion should be readied for late next
year or early 2027, in case Starship HLS or Blue Moon are ready by then.
We will
return to the Moon and go to Mars. But we must not plant the flag and forget it
for another half century. For the sake of the free world and commercial space,
our absence would invite China to make their long-promised territorial claim.
That would
mean that the incredible prospects for multi-billion dollar industries,
helium-3 mining, scientific labs, far-side telescopes, and of course tourist
centers would never happen. By the free world, that is.
The threat
from China was best illustrated with the 2017 poetic threat by Ye Pei-Jian, the
head of China’s military-led Lunar Exploration Program.
“The
universe is the ocean: the moon is the Diaoyu Islands and Mars is Huangyan
Island.”
Those are China’s names for the islands in
the East and South China Seas that China seized and militarized in violation of
the 400 years of freedom of the seas and the Law of the Sea Treaty, as well as
preparing for wars of conquest. He gave a clear warning of their goal to
similarly dominate outer space.
This is a
declaration of intention, just as is China's ‘nine-dashed line,' which they use
to illegally declare sovereignty in the South China Sea and over the
territories of other countries.
We would be
wise to deter China’s worst instincts by safely accelerating our lunar plans. Returning
to the Moon to beat China must be the national imperative for our Artemis
program.
We must
construct and maintain, with commercial and international partners, a permanent
lunar base. China’s military-led space program is designing theirs. We must do
no less.
When could
China land crew on the Moon? Here are some clues to their timing.
· Partial and full static fires of Long
March-10. A partial static fire involving three engines has been performed with
LM-10. The LM-10 is their “Falcon-Heavy” equivalent. Two would be used for a
lunar mission. One launch with the crew capsule, and another with the lander to
rendezvous with the crew capsule.
· The first test launch of LM-10.
· Photographs and public displays of
stages or stacked LM-10 rockets, the lander and other hardware.
· The first full-up test mission of LM-10.
This may be only an orbital test or it could be an uncrewed flight to the Moon
similar to Artemis I, where they could practice rendezvousing and docking with
the lunar lander.
· If successful, their second mission may
copy Artemis-II using the two LM-10 systems on a crewed orbit of the Moon as
well as performing an Apollo-10-like docking with their lander.
With
successful test launches of LM-10, expect a rapid cadence of launches, with
months, not a year or more between crewed lunar missions, and preparations to
establish their permanent lunar base.
China has
already flight-tested their new crew capsule. Those milestones are the first clues
for their timeframe to land crew on the Moon.
The third
launch of the LM-10 rockets may copy Artemis-3 with a crewed landing. Assuming
successes, their cadence of launches will be much faster than for Artemis.
Note that China
employs deception to keep us slumbering. China won’t go to the moon in 2030. Expect
more like 2027. Or even sooner if their uncrewed and first crewed mission
succeeds. China has an unlimited budget and an imperative to beat the US to the
Moon.
Eventually, China’s
LM-9, a reusable Starship knockoff, will be used for lunar and Martian
missions.
Prioritizing
a continuing U.S.-led free world presence on the Moon will forestall a Chinese
territorial claim, and lessons learned on the Moon will make Martian missions
and colonies safer and more successful.
(Photo credit: NASA)
