Space Wars by Russia and China

Thecriminally irresponsible Russian test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon could have destroyed or seriously damaged the International Space Station (ISS) and killed Russian Cosmonauts as well as the American and German astronauts. 

But this was predictable, a risk that Putin was willing to take in order to help scare the U.S. and Ukraine into submission. He knew what happens when you smash together two satellites in a crowded orbit.

In July, Putin issued a revanchist statement arguing for seizing Ukraine as well as Poland and Lithuania. Such a war for Ukraine, or a Chinese war for Taiwan may start with destroying U.S. military and commercial satellites to blind our response and make GPS-guided weapons useless.

China similarly and recklessly tested their ASAT weapon in 2007, creating an incredible cloud of destructive space particles--essentially bullets that could perhaps damage or destroy their new military-led space station.

The lesson is that both Russia and China may be willing to sacrifice--for all humanity--future access to space for their immediate goals of military conquest and global domination. Both countries may also be willing to start nuclear wars to serve their ends--potentially destroying life on earth or vast portions of it. Any war today would at the first moments involve destroying U.S. satellites, making orbital space unusable for centuries or longer, absent presently-unknown technologies to remove billions of bullet-like particles from various orbital levels.

It may not be 'popular' or comfortable to hear this, but the nature of dictators has not changed throughout history.

Those are the stakes as Xi and Putin gear up for their intended wars of conquest in this decade. 

The Kremlin backed up their potentially-lethal show of force with a threat to destroy all U.S. GPS satellites.  The rubble from their demonstration remains potentially-lethal, as the hundreds of thousands of large and tiny pieces will continue to threaten the space station and anything in low earth orbit for years or decades. 

Many in the 'space community' throughout the free world find the concept of militarizing space abhorrent, as they should. "Can't we all get along," they wonder. "Can't we have the aggressors sign or obey treaties?" Certainly international pressure is essential to get Russia and China to de-escalate, however treaties are the wrong way to go.

Treaties 'are made to be broken' in the minds of dictators; treaties only tie the hands of the free nations, just like gun control laws only disarm the peaceful and leave families helpless to stop armed criminals. Worse though, treaties lull to sleep the free world into believing that no country would militarize space or would risk destroying all access to space for present-day military gains. The ASAT tests by Russia and China should dispel that myth to careful observers.

The history of reckless military conquests that create only ultimate defeat and destruction does not apparently faze today's dictators. Each is blinded by the allure of victory that they have certainty they will gain. For example, Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany simultaneously declared war on the United States, each assured of victory in their own minds, yet both nations were utterly defeated and devastated. 

Who would buy Russian oil and gas or Chinese products in a post-war depression or societal collapse? Again, these considerations of their own economies collapsing are dim in the minds of those fantasizing about the world at last under their exclusive domination. 

In the present era of American military weakness and an absence of strong leaders here and among some of our allies, we invite a space 'Pearl Harbor" as a prelude to Chinese and Russian wars of conquest. In such wars, the United States may well be defeated, but our current weakness may lower the nuclear threshold, engulfing the world in a nuclear holocaust.

All who want to go to Mars and the Moon, or even to visit or live in earth orbit should raise the alarm that access to space is endangered by the reckless ASAT tests by both Russia and China, and their known plans for a space Pearl Harbor that in fact would destroy access to orbital space for centuries.

 

Apollo 11 and the Democratization of Space

July 20 will always be remembered for the historic landing of Apollo 11 on the Moon in 1969. This year, the anniversary shares the date with the opening of commercial space ventures. Blue Origin, led by Jeff Bezos, achieved its first passenger flight to space, following by just days Richard Branson's flight to space on Virgin Galactic.

This is huge, and ushers in the era of the democratization of space travel, that in coming years and decades will eventually bring suborbital and orbital flights at prices affordable to millions. 

You can see the parallels in your life. The first flat panel TVs cost a fortune, but now huge TVs are available everywhere for a few hundred dollars. Early computers filled buildings and cost millions until Apple and IBM invented personal computers--and today you carry a phone far more powerful than the Apollo spacecraft computers. Likewise, air travel was initially so costly that only the wealthy could fly coast to coast, but for many decades now, domestic and international flights have been affordable for the millions. See, it took the efforts of the creative and determined relative few to bring these ideas to market and through mass production in our free enterprise system, make them affordable and plentiful.

The next step will be orbital flights by SpaceX, Blue Origin and others, where you will be able to travel anywhere on earth within an hour or travel to orbit--and in less than 20 years, these may cost little more than a luxury cruise.

Oddly, some are criticizing Branson and Bezos for their incredible achievements. Envy? Perhaps they would have similarly criticized Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell, Steve Jobs, Neil Armstrong and all the other 'right stuff' doers, inventors, developers, and creators that built the most prosperous and healthy society in the history of mankind.  

The future of humanity will include hundreds, then thousands, then millions living and working in space, with cities in orbit and on the Moon and Mars. Children will point with awe at the lights on the Moon. The question is will it be a future of freedom in space as developed and protected by the U.S., or a dystopian future of tyranny on and off earth, all owned and controlled by China's dictators? 

Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins pioneered the way, NASA is on the path to returning Americans to the Moon--hopefully by 2024, and now private entrepreneurs will bring space travel to the thousands and eventually the millions. 

Humanity advances and during this lunar landing week, we should all applaud not only the Apollo pioneers but the new generation of spacefarers who may indeed sell you a ticket to space.

(Photo credit Blue Origin)

52 Years Past Apollo 11--When Will We Return to the Moon?

Fifty-two years ago, the entire world united for a week. Everyone forgot their differences and together as one tuned in on radio and TV to watch the greatest feat in the history of humanity.

The first step on another world transformed us in so many ways. Just months before on Apollo 8, we saw for the first time Earth from afar, and then the famous "Earthrise" photo, of the Earth rising above the Moon. 

Imagine this: It is July 16, 1969, and hundreds of thousands of people camped out near the Kennedy Space Center overnight waiting for the launch of Apollo 11. Millions more around the world are glued to their TVs and radios, awaiting the magical moment. It's a bright sunny morning and Apollo 11 is gleaming on the launch pad as technicians check the million-plus systems that all must work perfectly.

The astronauts wave to the cameras as they depart for the pad, and ascend 365 feet to the top of the Saturn V rocket. The hatch is closed and the world awaits...

All systems are GO! The time is 9:32 AM. The world holds its breath!

10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0! Smoke and fire billow from the mighty engines and slowly the rocket rises, then faster and faster. Humanity cheers on the launch of Apollo 11 on its historic mission to land Americans on the moon.

Apollo 11 is now in orbit. Two hours and 44 minutes later, the engines fired to take the spacecraft out of earth orbit and towards the moon, still a quarter of a million miles distant.

The adventure begins.

Now it's time to return. we CAN make 2024 with the support of the White House, Congress and NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. We MUST return before China beats us back and claims the water-ice bearing craters at the south pole as theirs, just as they do in the South China Sea. 

You can help: Call your Members of Congress in support of the 2024 return to the Moon. 202-224-3121.

Bravo to SpaceX -- Successful Starship SN15 Landing

Following previous failures to successfully land prototypes of the Starship spacecraft, SN-15 scored a 100% success in completing the complex flight profile and landing gracefully on the pad. 

This is an important landmark towards making Starship a reliable and cost-effective spacecraft for orbital, point-to-point and lunar missions, as well as to take the first astronauts to Mars.

We may see SN-15 being used again and again to further advance the development.  

China Violated Their Own Promises with Long March 5B Crash

China's second reckless abandonment of Long March (LM) 5B boosters for uncontrolled reentry violated their own 2016 "White Paper on China’s space activities" because the 5B has no deorbit thruster, so every past and future 5B will threaten lives and property on earth.

"9. Space debris. China has improved the monitoring and mitigation of and early warning and protection against space debris... China has also made breakthroughs in protection design technologies, applying them to the protection projects of spacecraft against space debris. In addition, all Long March carrier rockets have upper stage passivation, and discarded spacecraft are moved out of orbit to protect the space environment."

http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2016/12/28/content_281475527159496.htm

SpaceX Wins Lunar Lander Contract

Congratulations to SpaceX for winning the contract for the human lander for the Artemis project to the Moon.

NASA has awarded to SpaceX the sole $2.89 billion contract to land Americans on the Moon. Most had expected NASA to select two landers from the three awarded an earlier development contact: Dynetics, Blue Origin and SpaceX's Starship. While redundancy is vital in human spaceflight--Commercial crew was awarded to both SpaceX and Boeing, it is possible the single award was made for budgetary reasons (ridiculous in an era of multi-trillion spending bills). 

Current plans would call for astronauts to be launched on Orion to the Gateway, then transfer to a Starship for the descent to the Moon. And do the reverse for the return trip. 

On the surface, this is incredibly overcomplicated, involving completion of the expensive Gateway, launches on SLS/Orion and a launch by a Starship. If NASA is going to use Starship as a lunar lander, it makes more sense to do a Moon-direct flight on Starship and cancel the Gateway. That would make 2024 more possible.

Now the administration has to back up the award with funding, and the just released budget request has only minor funding for the lander. The contract raises many questions that require clarification.

Congress must fully fund the lander and should cancel the Gateway.

Call Congress at 202-224-3121.

Sen. Nelson to become NASA Administrator. Excellent, but what orders will he have to obey?

President Biden is nominating former Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) to be the NASA Administrator. The Deputy Administrator is expected to be retired NASA astronaut Colonel Pamela Melroy.

This is qualified good news for America's space program. Senator Nelson was a strong supporter of the space program during his service in the House and Senate. He opposed President Obama's cancellation of the return to the Moon and flew on space shuttle Columbia in the 1986 STS-61-C mission while serving in the House of Representatives.

Col. Melroy is a retired Air Force test pilot and former NASA astronaut who flew three missions in space: as space shuttle pilot during STS-92 in 2000 and STS-112 in 2002, and as Space Shuttle Commander during STS-120 in 2007.

Nelson's nomination is expected to pass in the Senate near-unanimously, and Save Manned Space endorses both.

The two may be the ideal leadership team to continue our journeys to the Moon and Mars. If the reverse happens, it would not be their decision or goals, but a return of similar presidential orders as those that cancelled the return to the Moon in 2010.

President Obama's NASA Administrator Charles Bolden and Deputy Lori Garver carried out orders to kill the return to the Moon, handing China a 10-15-year head-start which they are exploiting with the stated intention to claim areas of the Moon and Mars as their own. 

Another U.S. delay or cancellation seals the deal for China, and would see SpaceX and others unable to operate freely in space. We hope that Nelson and Melroy will be given orders to continue or accelerate Artemis, not delay it until after China denies us access.

Today the future of NASA is in great doubt, worrying space advocates, industry, our international partners, and every American who wants to see the triumphant return to the Moon--and eagerly followed by China's regime.

NASA has already announced the cancellation of the 2024 goal for Artemis without naming a new target date.

Without a date, we will never get there. Had President John F. Kennedy not set the famous "in this decade" target, we may never have reached the Moon at all--bureaucracy, cost overruns and diminishing public support would have delayed Apollo forever, and a decade or two later, the Soviet Union could have beaten us to the Moon.

Save Manned Space wishes Godspeed and full support for Sen. Nelson and Col. Melroy to keep Artemis on target for 2024 or 2025, and counsels that later dates--or worse, no date--only encourages China's worst instincts to claim the strategic ice-bearing craters on the lunar south pole, as in the South China Sea.

The first task for Nelson and Melroy--and a serious test--will be to prepare a budget with sufficiently additional funding for Artemis to build the lander and accelerate, not slow the program. President Biden's legacy should include getting Americans back to the Moon and on the road to Mars, not to emulate President Obama's legacy of cancellations and wasting almost a decade's progress in crewed space exploration.

We literally could be on the Moon today and preparing for a Mars landing but for Obama's unwise decision to kill the lunar program.

Another test will be to resist the 'China lobby's' suddenly-ramped-up campaign to drop the vital restrictions on cooperating and sharing space technology with China. We must work with the free world and commercial space to explore space and protect access to space, the Moon and Mars, not empower China to use our highest technologies for military purposes and to deny free-world and commercial access to space.

Yet another test will be to avoid repeating the many terrible policies of the Obama administration, including robbing funding for crewed space exploration and turning the agency into more of a left-wing ideological advocacy agency.

Sen. Nelson and Col. Melroy have the amazing opportunity to continue and advance the American space renaissance that can see Americans returning to the Moon, building a permanent research base, and then leading the way to Mars. All that's needed is to keep following the successes of Jim Bridenstine's leadership and, by asking for modest budget increases, meet the 2024 or 2025 timeframe.

Let's together unify Americans on a breathtaking return to the Moon, and by our presence, keep true "we came in peace for all mankind." Then with lessons learned, venture to Mars!

Will Biden Keep or Kill the Return to the Moon? China Wins With Delays

President Joe Biden has the opportunity to continue and accelerate progress on America's proud return to the Moon and beginning the journey to Mars.

In fact, during his term, with just a few extra bucks and following the roadmap already prepared under President Trump and NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Biden could actually preside over the launch of the first woman and next man to set foot on the Moon.

Or he could give in to the anti-science and anti-American leadership elements and delay perhaps forever our return--and then we would become mere spectators to China's triumphant landings and expected illegal territorial claims on the Moon.

That is the choice, and the decisions made this year will decide the fate of American, free-world and commercial access to the Moon and beyond for decades to come. Those are factually the stakes.

Since the president's election, space industries, policy experts and commercial ventures have been hoping for a positive signal from the new administration that they will not outright cancel America's return to the Moon, or not delay it so long that China can complete their anti-access strategy to achieve their intended dominance of space.

This is not a trivial matter. The entire future exploration and habitation of the Moon depends upon free access to water-ice craters on the poles, free access to cis-lunar space, and the ability to establish landing sites, habitats and eventually colonies.

China recognizes no sovereignty but their own, as evidenced by claiming and militarizing the South China Sea against 400 years of freedom of the seas and invading the sovereign territories of many nations.

Don't get it? Consider this 2017 shot across the bow by Ye Peijian, the head of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program: “The universe is like the ocean, the moon is like the Diaoyu Islands and Mars is like Huangyan Island.” Diaoyu is the CCP's name for Japan’s sovereign Senkaku Islands, and Huangyan is actually Scarborough Shoal which belongs to the Philippines. 

You read that right, China is openly declaring they will claim and militarize the Moon, and deny open access to the free world and commercial ventures.

China often obscures their intentions to lull the west to sleep, but here the Communist leadership was being honest and threatening, perhaps to bully the U.S. and free world into submission. America left a plaque on the Moon proclaiming, "we came in peace for all mankind," but China does not share in a desire for peace or for "all mankind."

In our absence, China will make territorial claims on the Moon and eventually Mars. If we abandon and destroy the International Space Station--America's national presence in orbit, expect China to make good their threat to claim "vertical sovereignty" which means all space above Chinese territory--essentially all orbital space.

A Chinese-dominated moon might allow foreigners and commercial ventures IF they obey rules similar to their WTO-violating rules to share their high technology, have a 51% Chinese partner, and never say a bad word about China's regime. That would end U.S. NASA and commercial leadership in space technology.

Therefore, let's look at targets to watch during the next four years:

1. Read the president's budget request for NASA. If we see cuts to Artemis and the lunar lander, and shifting funds instead to yet more climate change studies, we will know returning to the Moon is being effectively cancelled by delaying it forever. This may be the first real clue to the administrations intentions. Rhetoric is meaningless or a diversion to not look at real actions by the administration.
2. If Artemis I, the un-crewed mission around the Moon, doesn't launch late this year or next year at the latest, that's a signal the return to the Moon is again on the cancellation or forever-delay list--and China wins.
3. If Artemis II, the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit in almost 50 years, is delayed beyond 2023 or 2024 at the latest, China wins.
4. If Artemis III, America's exciting return to the surface of the Moon is delayed beyond 2024 or 2025, China wins.

For years, western media and many independent observers discounted and even ridiculed China's space program. They do not see--or do not wish to see the threat from Chinese dominance of space.

But they ignored the evidence hiding in plain sight. China may have apparently moved slowly over the past decade, but they were building their infrastructure, building new generations of rockets and spacecraft--and we are now in the early stages of their Apollo-scale 'breakout' to dominate space in all realms.

Witness:

• China has built a huge launch complex, Wenchang Launch Center on Hainan Island, which rivals the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral. It will even have a theme park and a "space city." This is where high-visibility launches will take place.
• China's SLS/Starship-class rocket, the Long March-9, is under construction, and unlike SLS, has not been constrained by bureaucracy and politics. Similar progress continues on lunar landers and other elements for a crewed landing in the near future.
• China has test-launched their new, indigenous, deep space (Orion-class) crewed spacecraft. This is what will carry their astronauts to the Moon, Mars and beyond.
• China is building reusable rockets, looking like smaller clones of SpaceX's Falcon-9, and it is not hard to imagine they would already have stolen the plans for SpaceX's Starship. Imagine the advantages of being able to land hundreds of troops anywhere on Earth within an hour.
• China is planning a similar spacecraft to NASA’s abandoned X-30 National Aerospace Plane. The airplane/spacecraft would be able to takeoff and land on regular runways anywhere in the world, unlike SpaceX's Starship which is tethered to remote launch or landing stations. Aerospace planes will eventually become the standard for reusable spacecraft.
• China has had five successful robotic missions to the Moon. The latest one, Chang'e 5, returned lunar soil samples to China, and the next is planned to return lunar ice from the south pole.
• China will launch the first module of their permanent military-run space station this year, and perhaps have one or two crewed missions as well this year, followed by routine ISS-like missions. Whenever ISS may be decommissioned, China may have the only crewed national presence in orbit, and a military presence at that, which is a danger to all free-world nations and commercial ventures.
• Long-term plans exist for orbital solar satellites that would beam megawatts and eventually gigawatts of power to China. Like everything China does with technology, there's always a military side. The same beam that could send a gigawatt of energy to receiving stations could instead be directed to destroy foreign cities or military assets, as well as foreign satellites.
• Another plan is in development for a tremendous military radar array on the Moon that could map most military assets on Earth every 24 hours, compared to the small swatches captured from orbital spy satellites.

Chinese Lunar Military Radar Concept

Unlike the U.S., Europe and other free nations, there are no budget constraints in China's military-led space program. None. It is not a civilian but a military program.

China publicly claims that they will not attempt a crewed landing on the Moon before the late 2020s or early 2030s. This is typical Chinese strategic deception. When you look at the elements that are already coming together--spacecraft, launch facilities, rocket factories, robotic lunar landers, 2025 would be more realistic. In fact, China's lunar program revealed presentations that show landings in the 2025 timeframe. Here's one showing the start of a crewed lunar research base on the Moon in the 2025 timeframe.

Chinese Lunar Timeline

America's future in space can be wonderful and help propel our economy, jobs and technology to new heights. If decisions made by President Biden this year don't abandon existing progress and cede the high frontier to China.

Artemis Missions to the Moon

What should you do to help retain American and commercial leadership in space?

• Contact your members of Congress in support of full funding and keeping Artemis on schedule for landing Americans in 2024—and to help block China’s territorial claims on the Moon. 
• Contact the White House with the same message. 
• Write op-eds and letters to the editor as well as call talk shows in support as well. 
• Share this on social media and promote the message to the space community and industries.