Will Biden Keep or Kill the Return to the Moon? China Wins With Delays

President Joe Biden has the opportunity to continue and accelerate progress on America's proud return to the Moon and beginning the journey to Mars.

In fact, during his term, with just a few extra bucks and following the roadmap already prepared under President Trump and NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Biden could actually preside over the launch of the first woman and next man to set foot on the Moon.

Or he could give in to the anti-science and anti-American leadership elements and delay perhaps forever our return--and then we would become mere spectators to China's triumphant landings and expected illegal territorial claims on the Moon.

That is the choice, and the decisions made this year will decide the fate of American, free-world and commercial access to the Moon and beyond for decades to come. Those are factually the stakes.

Since the president's election, space industries, policy experts and commercial ventures have been hoping for a positive signal from the new administration that they will not outright cancel America's return to the Moon, or not delay it so long that China can complete their anti-access strategy to achieve their intended dominance of space.

This is not a trivial matter. The entire future exploration and habitation of the Moon depends upon free access to water-ice craters on the poles, free access to cis-lunar space, and the ability to establish landing sites, habitats and eventually colonies.

China recognizes no sovereignty but their own, as evidenced by claiming and militarizing the South China Sea against 400 years of freedom of the seas and invading the sovereign territories of many nations.

Don't get it? Consider this 2017 shot across the bow by Ye Peijian, the head of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program: “The universe is like the ocean, the moon is like the Diaoyu Islands and Mars is like Huangyan Island.” Diaoyu is the CCP's name for Japan’s sovereign Senkaku Islands, and Huangyan is actually Scarborough Shoal which belongs to the Philippines. 

You read that right, China is openly declaring they will claim and militarize the Moon, and deny open access to the free world and commercial ventures.

China often obscures their intentions to lull the west to sleep, but here the Communist leadership was being honest and threatening, perhaps to bully the U.S. and free world into submission. America left a plaque on the Moon proclaiming, "we came in peace for all mankind," but China does not share in a desire for peace or for "all mankind."

In our absence, China will make territorial claims on the Moon and eventually Mars. If we abandon and destroy the International Space Station--America's national presence in orbit, expect China to make good their threat to claim "vertical sovereignty" which means all space above Chinese territory--essentially all orbital space.

A Chinese-dominated moon might allow foreigners and commercial ventures IF they obey rules similar to their WTO-violating rules to share their high technology, have a 51% Chinese partner, and never say a bad word about China's regime. That would end U.S. NASA and commercial leadership in space technology.

Therefore, let's look at targets to watch during the next four years:

1. Read the president's budget request for NASA. If we see cuts to Artemis and the lunar lander, and shifting funds instead to yet more climate change studies, we will know returning to the Moon is being effectively cancelled by delaying it forever. This may be the first real clue to the administrations intentions. Rhetoric is meaningless or a diversion to not look at real actions by the administration.
2. If Artemis I, the un-crewed mission around the Moon, doesn't launch late this year or next year at the latest, that's a signal the return to the Moon is again on the cancellation or forever-delay list--and China wins.
3. If Artemis II, the first crewed mission beyond low Earth orbit in almost 50 years, is delayed beyond 2023 or 2024 at the latest, China wins.
4. If Artemis III, America's exciting return to the surface of the Moon is delayed beyond 2024 or 2025, China wins.

For years, western media and many independent observers discounted and even ridiculed China's space program. They do not see--or do not wish to see the threat from Chinese dominance of space.

But they ignored the evidence hiding in plain sight. China may have apparently moved slowly over the past decade, but they were building their infrastructure, building new generations of rockets and spacecraft--and we are now in the early stages of their Apollo-scale 'breakout' to dominate space in all realms.

Witness:

• China has built a huge launch complex, Wenchang Launch Center on Hainan Island, which rivals the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral. It will even have a theme park and a "space city." This is where high-visibility launches will take place.
• China's SLS/Starship-class rocket, the Long March-9, is under construction, and unlike SLS, has not been constrained by bureaucracy and politics. Similar progress continues on lunar landers and other elements for a crewed landing in the near future.
• China has test-launched their new, indigenous, deep space (Orion-class) crewed spacecraft. This is what will carry their astronauts to the Moon, Mars and beyond.
• China is building reusable rockets, looking like smaller clones of SpaceX's Falcon-9, and it is not hard to imagine they would already have stolen the plans for SpaceX's Starship. Imagine the advantages of being able to land hundreds of troops anywhere on Earth within an hour.
• China is planning a similar spacecraft to NASA’s abandoned X-30 National Aerospace Plane. The airplane/spacecraft would be able to takeoff and land on regular runways anywhere in the world, unlike SpaceX's Starship which is tethered to remote launch or landing stations. Aerospace planes will eventually become the standard for reusable spacecraft.
• China has had five successful robotic missions to the Moon. The latest one, Chang'e 5, returned lunar soil samples to China, and the next is planned to return lunar ice from the south pole.
• China will launch the first module of their permanent military-run space station this year, and perhaps have one or two crewed missions as well this year, followed by routine ISS-like missions. Whenever ISS may be decommissioned, China may have the only crewed national presence in orbit, and a military presence at that, which is a danger to all free-world nations and commercial ventures.
• Long-term plans exist for orbital solar satellites that would beam megawatts and eventually gigawatts of power to China. Like everything China does with technology, there's always a military side. The same beam that could send a gigawatt of energy to receiving stations could instead be directed to destroy foreign cities or military assets, as well as foreign satellites.
• Another plan is in development for a tremendous military radar array on the Moon that could map most military assets on Earth every 24 hours, compared to the small swatches captured from orbital spy satellites.

Chinese Lunar Military Radar Concept

Unlike the U.S., Europe and other free nations, there are no budget constraints in China's military-led space program. None. It is not a civilian but a military program.

China publicly claims that they will not attempt a crewed landing on the Moon before the late 2020s or early 2030s. This is typical Chinese strategic deception. When you look at the elements that are already coming together--spacecraft, launch facilities, rocket factories, robotic lunar landers, 2025 would be more realistic. In fact, China's lunar program revealed presentations that show landings in the 2025 timeframe. Here's one showing the start of a crewed lunar research base on the Moon in the 2025 timeframe.

Chinese Lunar Timeline

America's future in space can be wonderful and help propel our economy, jobs and technology to new heights. If decisions made by President Biden this year don't abandon existing progress and cede the high frontier to China.

Artemis Missions to the Moon

What should you do to help retain American and commercial leadership in space?

• Contact your members of Congress in support of full funding and keeping Artemis on schedule for landing Americans in 2024—and to help block China’s territorial claims on the Moon. 
• Contact the White House with the same message. 
• Write op-eds and letters to the editor as well as call talk shows in support as well. 
• Share this on social media and promote the message to the space community and industries.

Congratulations to SpaceX for Starship Successes!

Today was a spectacular and historic demonstration of technologies never before demonstrated. 

SpaceX's Starship SN8 launched perfectly, got to altitude powered by three Raptor engines perfectly, shut down the engines one at a time perfectly, pitched horizontally perfectly, flew with fins steering it perfectly--amazing, fired up its engines perfectly, pivoted back to vertical perfectly, and descended perfectly. It crashed on landing due to low pressure in a propellant tank, but that can be fixed for future tests.

The media predictably focused on the crash landing, but they only like to report bad news and make everything sound worse than it is. The successes--ahhh, that's the story!

The engineers will be delighted with the data from the test, and Starship SN9 will get many improvements as a result, including to propellant pressurization systems. Future tests will take Starship to orbit and eventually to the Moon and Mars. 

SpaceX already has a development contract with NASA for demonstrating Starship's ability to land American astronauts on the Moon. Today's test is an important step towards that goal, as well as a milestone on the road to taking humans to Mars.

Bravo to the SpaceX team and Elon Musk for a successful test of so many systems, and here's hoping the next one is 100% perfect. #WhyWeTest

The Mars Helicopter!

Here's another exciting element of the Perseverance Mars rover--the Mars helicopter, named Ingenuity. That's right, there will be a real drone-sized helicopter onboard the rover. It's an experiment for larger ones on future missions, so it will do short flights for as long as it lasts, perhaps just one flight, perhaps several.

It can scout ahead for the rover's travels, take photos of the rover for troubleshooting, create wonderful panoramas, and swoop down to photograph interesting features.

Because the atmosphere on Mars is about 1/100th of Earth's atmosphere, the blades will spin incredibly fast.

Expect more helicopters on future Mars landers.

The Mars Microphone!

Following a picture-perfect launch, NASA's Perseverance rover is on the way to Mars--scheduled to land next February. One really cool thing onboard is a pair of microphones.

Yes! You'll be able to listen to the landing, the winds of Mars, and the sounds of the rover as it moves.

From NASA:

SuperCam can listen for about 3.5 minutes at a time while performing science observations. This gives the rover the chance to hear the sounds of Mars, such as the high-pitched sound of sand grains over the surface, the wind whistling around the rover mast, and low-pitched howls of dust devils passing by. The microphone also records sounds of Perseverance using its arm, coring rocks, and the wheels crunching against the surface. The rover may hear the other instruments, internal mechanisms, and hear when we drop off the sample tubes. In some cases, sound can help the team diagnose the health of the rover's internal mechanisms or instruments.

Learn more:
https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/spacecraft/rover/microphones/


Photo credit: NASA

Space Week! Mars Rover Launches, SpaceX Astronauts Return

NASA's new rover, "Perseverance," launches July 30 at 7:50 AM EDT, and the two astronauts launched on SpaceX's new crew rocket will return to Earth on August 1 at 7:34 PM EDT.

You can watch both at NASA.gov/NTV.

Perseverance will have 3-D cameras for awesome views of Mars, and especially important, it will collect soil samples that will in coming years be returned to Earth in a separate mission.

Learn more about this exciting mission:
nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-invites-public-to-share-excitement-of-mars-2020-perseverance-rover-launch

The return of NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley ends the succeful mission that returned American astronaut to space on American rockets for the first time since the retirement of the space shuttles.

Learn more: nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-provide-coverage-of-astronauts-return-from-space-station-on-spacex-commercial 


Photo credits: NASA

Apollo at 51, Moon in 2024

Today, July 20, 2020, we remember and honor the hundreds of thousands of Americans who made Apollo a reality, as well as Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins who brought the ultimate success to the mission.

Today, we're back on the road pioneered by the Apollo generation, with NASA's Project Artemis targeting 2024 for sending the first woman and next man to the Moon. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine has slashed bureaucracy and brought in tremendous participation and ownership by commercial space to accelerate the program dramatically enough to make 2024 feasible.

One lesson of Apollo was that all problems are surmountable given the willpower. We invented from scratch everything needed to land and survive on the moon. Today we have the technology so all that's needed is just the willpower to put it together, and especially, the willpower by Congress to offer full support.

On this anniversary, you can help Congress provide the necessary support, because if we fail, the return to the Moon will be again delayed forever, and China would take that as an invitation to claim the south pole as their territory.  Here's how to help:

Please call your members of Congress in support for the president’s NASA budget request. 202-224-3121

Important tip: Do NOT leave a message with the receptionist--that counts for nothing. 

Instead, ask for the name of the “LA” or Legislative Assistant” who handles science and NASA. Get their email, and send a message. That’s the person who briefs their boss on NASA. State your case concisely and ask for full support of the president’s budget request, and full support for Artemis by 2024.  If you don’t get a reply, keep sending the email—staff get hundreds of emails a day, so yours will often get lost in the flood.

Set up a virtual meeting, better yet, request a meeting with the Member when they are in the district or state, or attend a Virtual Town Hall.

You can also call the members of the House Science Committee and the House Space Subcommittee.

Then, if you have contacts in space-related companies and advocacy organizations, ask them to take action as well—their voices will be louder than yours alone.

These simple steps can help secure safe access to the Moon for all mankind; to fulfill the hope expressed in the plaque Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin left on the Moon fifty years ago.

Thank you very much.

(Image courtesy NASA)

America is BACK ! SpaceX Launch America

Astronauts Bob Behnken & Doug Hurley Credit: SpaceX/Ashish Sharma	Demo 2 Launch Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls
Docking with ISS  Credit: NASA	Arrival at ISS Credit: NASA Bill Stafford

America is BACK! After a picture-perfect launch and docking with the International Space Station, our 'right stuff' astronauts, Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, entered the International Space Station on May 31. This historic launch of the first crewed commercial SpaceX rocket marked the first time since 2011 that we could send our astronauts to space on American rockets.

The return of American astronauts on American rockets with the SpaceX crew Dragon launch is vital for several reasons.

1. America is no longer reliant on access to space exclusively on Russian rockets. For nine years our access to space was entirely reliant on Russian rockets, with no backup capabilities in case of accidents. While we wish them well, Russia's non-military space program has been imploding over the past couple decades, and their program is plagued with poor quality control--alarmingly including an apparently intentionally-caused leak in a Soyuz spacecraft. In spite of spending great sums on a new launch complex at Vostochny within Russian territory--Baikonur is in Kazakhstan, Vostochny has yet to see a crewed or Progress launch, and plans for a new generation of human-rated rockets and spacecraft have never advanced. Sadly, Russia is opposing commercial development in space by refusing to sign the Artemis Accords, which lay out the rule of law for the future in space.

2. Redundant launch capability with SpaceX and next year Boeing. America learned the hard way with the two space shuttle accidents that single-sourced launch platforms can ground our space program.

We were lucky that there have been no crew launch accidents with Soyuz. However, in 2011, the Coalition to Save Manned Space Exploration presented a paper to NASA on alternatives to decrewing ISS when a Soyuz Progress launch failed. Because the crewed Soyuz used the same second stage as Progress, all crew launches were cancelled. This resulted in three astronaut leaving ISS without replacements, and ISS was in danger of being entirely decrewed for the first time since 2000. Just weeks before the return flight of the remaining three crew, Soyuz was cleared for return to flight, and a new crew arrived at ISS. Two different launch platforms are essential to continuous access to space.

3. Great boost to America's worldwide stature, and beating China. Nothing says American exceptionalism and worldwide leadership than being able to lunch astronauts and soon paying travelers on our own rockets. China is planning to build a small space station beginning this year, but their space program is a military-run non-commercial program. America is setting the example for new private industries and opportunities in space.

4. Creation of a commercial crew market. This may be remembered as the most important result from commercial crew. We will see paid voyages to orbit and to ISS soon, which allows scientists, universities, countries without space programs, filmmakers, industrialists, entrepreneurs and tourists to reach orbit. Companies including Bigelow Aerospace have designed space habitats and laboratories, which will now have a market of people and industry able to reach orbit for commercial and tourist purposes. NASA has agreed to let actor Tom Cruise film a movie on ISS.

5. Dragon and Boeing's Starliner can both seat four people in ISS configuration, one more than Soyuz. and they could be configured for up to seven. The fourth seat will often be used by NASA to fly an additional crew member from one of our ISS partners. This will increase the frequency our partners will be able to go to ISS--space diplomacy, and NASA is also allowing private individuals to buy the extra seat and stay on ISS for a short time.

6. Increased public attention, thus support, for our space program including returning to the moon by 2024. The media has largely refused to cover the exciting news of returning to the Moon by 2024 (The Washington Post, for example put 51 stories ahead of the initial March 2019 announcement--the exciting news was buried on page A-24), however the SpaceX launch was covered extensively by the media, drawing millions to learn more about NASA's programs including Artemis. This gets people enthusiastic and will build support in Congress as well.

7. President Trump leadership highlighted in returning American space exploration--while the commercial crew was in progress before 2017, America wouldn't be returning to the Moon in this decade or going to Mars but for his leadership.